July 29, 2012

The trade deadline is right around the corner but a lot of big deals have happened already. One of them is the Yankee's acquisition of Ichiro. I had actually thought the Yankees would be content with the roster they had and try to compete with it. After all, the Yankees can boast the best run differential (as of the end of today they are +84, tied with the Rangers), a sign of a well rounded team that can pitch and hit. However, the Yankees are the Yankees and had to make a big splash. While Ichiro is not the same hitter he was when he was younger, he is still a good addition. The Yankees can score runs the way they are, and do not need Ichiro to hit .400 for the remainder of the season to win the AL East. Instead, the Yankees can expect Ichiro to play well in the outfield. They can also expect a guy who can run the bases well and do damage when he gets on. Though many of the fans and the media will expect Ichiro to hit, as long as the other Yankees are hitting, it should not matter too much. If the Yankees hit a bad stretch, and Ichiro does struggle, questions will be raised. But if that happens, the Yankees can kiss their postseason hopes good bye anyway because they are in a tough division, even if they do have a massive lead. I would expect Ichiro not to return to the Yankees next season anyway, considering Brett Gardner will be coming back and Ichiro's age.

The Dodgers also made a big move by acquiring Hanley Ramirez from the Marlins. Remember the Dream Team the Marlin's tried to assemble last offseason? Well that has fallen apart quickly and now one of the Marlin's premier players has been traded away. (Note: I would not go so far as to call this a fire sale on the part of the Marlins. Look to the Marlins after the 2005 season and the 2008 Pirates for real fire sales. This is merely a sub par team trading away veterans for prospects.) While Hanley has struggled so far this season, I think his numbers will pick up with the Dodgers and he will be motivated by a chance to play in the postseason. He is also a valuable hitter to hit behind Kemp and Either and his presence there alone will help bolster that lineup. Defensively, I am not of the opinion he adds very much value to the Dodgers, though the move was made to get a major bat. While I do not think he will have the impact Manny Ramirez did when he was traded to the Dodgers, I do think he will be a solid player and improve upon what he was with the Marlins. Unlike Ichiro, I do expect the Dodgers to keep Hanley as he is still young. Over time, I expect Hanley to return to the player he was before. Where Hanley might hurt the Dodgers is with his off the field issues. Because of this question mark, I do not think this addition is as good as the Yankees acquiring Ichiro.

Another major acquisition was the Angels acquiring yet another starter: Zack Greinke. The Angels already had a formidable rotation with Jered Weaver and C.J. Wilson. Dan Haren is also a good starter, though he has had his struggles. Adding Greinke to the mix really makes it strong and might make it the best rotation on paper in the AL. However, I do not think the Angels will be able to catch the Rangers in the AL West. The Rangers have shown they can both pitch and hit with the best teams in the American League, and though their pitching staff might be thinning out, they still have good starters and an offense to more than make up for it, especially if Josh Hamilton gets out of the horrendous slump he is in. The Angels, on the other hand, have had a good pitching staff but have been mediocre in terms of offense this season. While their pitching staff might be good enough to carry them to the playoffs, I do not believe it will be good enough to win a division. But that might not matter. The Angels now have the pitching to be formidable in a short series and recent years have proved good pitching and timely hitting is more than good enough to win a World Series.

July 22, 2012

I know there is exciting talk of Dwight Howard coming to the Lakers and creating an elite team in the West, but I do not think the trade would be a good idea for the Lakers. The Lakers already have a good center in Andrew Bynum, and while he does have a track record of getting injured, he is still an all star. While Dwight Howard might be a better player, the difference between Bynum and Howard is not significant enough to make a blockbuster trade. When do two all stars who play the same position ever get traded for each other? The only scenario in which I can see this working out is if both players are disgruntled with their current teams. Howard is definitely not happy with the Magic, but as far as any of us know, Bynum is quite content to be a Laker. To get Howard, the Lakers would likely have to give up Bynum and more. I don't think this is worth it for the Lakers because Howard is not that much better than Bynum.

About the Lakers wanting to acquire Howard, why is everyone so obsessed with creating a juggernaut team on paper? Real sports is no video game. Time and time again it has been proven that team made through trades and free agency do not always win championships, and often perform poorly. Athletes are humans, not robots. Factors other than talent determine whether a team wins. Take Lamar Odom, who had a horrible season because he simply did not want play for Dallas. The Philadelphia Eagles created a dream team in free agency, and they failed to make the playoffs for a number of reasons. There are a few exceptions to this idea, but they are often special cases. The 2009 Yankees won the World Series and made a number of major offseason acquisitions including Mark Teixeira, CC Sabathia, Nick Swisher, and AJ Burnett. However, the Yankees already had the core of their roster in place, and these players filled subsidiary roles. The exception would be CC Sabathia, but he is just the case of an innings eater and a good player on a team that scores a lot of runs. The Miami Heat did win it all this year with their hallowed Big 3, but LeBron, Wade, and Bosh had already been together for a year. The first season they were together, while they did have much success, ended horrifically in the finals. Teams are better built through the draft and developing young talent. Bill Belichick's Patriots are always in contention because they know how to draft. The New York Giants were able to have repeated success the Patriots because they could do the same. The San Francisco Giants have developed a solid group of young pitchers who have been able to make a winner out of little offensive aid. These teams are more consistent because their organizations have helped them create winners out of talent as opposed to buying talent.

The AL Wild Card race is wild enough to be noteworthy. As of today, there are 8 teams within 4 games of the two wild card spots. To make the race even more wild, the AL Central is up for grabs, and the loser is by no means guaranteed a Wild Card spot. Even the teams that have big leads, the Yankees and Rangers, have stumbled recently. That would put 11 of the 14 teams in the AL within striking distance of a playoff spot. Yet, I do not think this will last for very long. Teams like the Orioles and the Indians who are younger and might normally try to go after a veteran starter to boost their rotations or another bat might not get that opportunity given that so many teams are in contention and are not willing to part with those players. A guy like Doug Fister, who last year catapulted the Tigers into the playoff last year will not likely not be available. For this reason, I think the teams with the advantage are the ones with more complete clubs and injured players who will return in the coming months. Teams Yankees and Rangers have complete relatively rosters, and they should have the advantage going forward in that they likely will not have to add anyone. The Rays are also in an advantageous position because they have good starting depth and should get Evan Longoria back who will make all the difference both offensively and defensively. Those teams are my favorites to make the playoffs going forward. In the end, I think the Yankees will hold the AL East, the Rangers will win the AL West, the Tigers will win a tight race in the AL Central, and the Rays and Angels will nab the Wild Card spots. Then again, a team that gets on fire near the end might very well make the playoffs and win everything.

July 8, 2012

I am excited to watch the Home Run Derby. In my opinion, it's the best event in professional sports. The Home Run Derby is a fun event because it is simple, exciting, and objective. The simplicity aspect of it is important as the players in the Home Run Derby tend to be loose, whereas in playoff games and the Super Bowl they are more tense. While those games are thick in excitement, other than the Super Bowl, championship series are less predictable. How many times has there been a seven game series in the championship round of an MLB, NBA, or NHL championship recently? It hardly ever happens. Even when it does, like the World Series last year, game 6, a back and forth affar, was a better game than game 7, in which a Cardinal victory was hardly ever in question. All star games, while the players are relaxed, are not exciting because the players tend not to care about the outcome. The other event that comes close to the Home Run Derby is the Dunk Contest. However, the Dunk Contest is objective. While this might not matter a lot, it does when players like Blake Griffin dunk. Griffin is talented, but if his dunk is as good as another player's, Griffin will get the advantage because he is Blake Griffin. The Homerun Derby, on the other hand, has none of those biases and is therefore my favorite event to watch.

The first half of the baseball season is over and so far, Josh Hamilton is probably deserving of the American League MVP. I believe this because of the impact he has on his team. While the Rangers have good bats without Hamilton, Hamilton can carry that team for weeks at a time. While Cano has been good in recent weeks, he was not as good at the beginning of the season. Trout only came up recently, but he has come on strong. In the NL, I think RA Dickey has been the best player, considering the way he has led the Mets to so many wins and the unique way he has done it (as a knuckleballer). There are other good hitters in the NL who would probably make good candidates, but RA Dickey has the better story, having come from nowhere. That, in my opinion, makes him the better candidate.