Sports October 1, 2012

A lot was made of the call the Monday Night Football last week between the Seahawks and Packers that awarded the Seahawks the game winning touchdown. One can easily argue that the Packers deserved that game, but I would beg to differ. An entire game cannot be decided on a single play. If it could, we might as well start football games in the last two minutes. There are several plays over the course of the entire game that decide its outcome. If the Packers really did deserve to win that game, they would not have left themselves vulnerable to replacement referees and last second hail maries. Instead, they would have made plays earlier in the game. Remember, the Packers offensive line was destroyed by that Seahawks and managed to sack Aaron Rodgers eight times in the first half. The Packers might easily have kept Rodgers upright and maybe he would have had a chance to tear apart the Seahawks secondary. Keep in mind, Aaron Rodgers is the reigning MVP, he can tear a defense apart and has done it with consistency. If the Packers really did deserve to win that game, they would have finished off the Seahawks. On a side note, the Seahawks did catch a break and did not play particularly well themselves.

So much for the vaunted passing attacks we saw last season. The five best quarterbacks in the league (who are in my opinion Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, and Ben Roethlisberger) are a combined 7-11. Who saw that coming? Last season now appears to be a bit of a fluke in the trend that defense wins championships. The Texans, Falcons, and Cardinals, while they have had a good amount of offense, have all played pretty well on defense. These teams are also undefeated this season. This just goes on to prove that defense does win championships, not offense.

A lot has been made of the AL MVP race, but in my opinion the reward should go to Mike Trout. This holds even if Miguel Cabrera wins the triple crown. Miguel Cabrera might be a great offensive player and winning a triple crown is nothing to scoff at (even if those three statistics are not the three most significant statistics, it has not been done in a long time). For his success at the plate, Cabrera should win a sliver slugger award, an award given to good hitters. However, baseball is not all about hitting; there are many more aspects that go into a good game and a good player. The MVP award is for the best player in the league, not the best hitter in the league. This can be observed in that last year, Justin Verlander, a pitcher, won the MVP. If that award was legitimate, then more than just hitting numbers should be accounted for. Trout and Cabrera's offensive statistics are comparable, but in all other aspects of the game, Trout is much better. Trout has played a gold glover center field, while Cabrera is an ordinary third baseman. Sure, Cabrera is out of position, but keep in mind Cabrera has had to change positions for the majority of his career because he has not been particularly amazing at any one position.   Trout is also an excellent baserunner, which should also not get overlooked. Because Trout is the best, or among the best, in the league at all of these phases of the game, he should win the AL MVP and not Miguel Cabrera.

September 3, 2012

These are my predictions for this NFL season:

AFC:

East:
1. Patriots
2. Jets
3. Bills
4. Dolphins

North:
1. Steelers
2. Ravens
3. Bengals
4. Browns

South:
1. Texans
2. Titans
3. Colts
4. Jaguars

West:
1. Broncos
2. Chiefs
3. Chargers
4. Raiders

Wildcards: Ravens, Chargers

NFC:

East:
1. Giants
2. Eagles
3. Cowboys
4. Redskins

North:
1. Packers
2. Bears
3. Lions
4. Vikings

South:
1. Falcons
2. Saints
3. Panthers
4. Buccaneers

West:
1. 49ers
2. Seahawks
3. Cardinals
4. Rams

Wildcards: Saints, Bears

MVP: Drew Brees

Offensive Player of the Year: Arian Foster

Defensive Player of the Year: Patrick Willis

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Andrew Luck

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Shea McClellan

Coach of the Year: Gary Kubiak

AFC Conference Champion: Texans

NFC Conference Champion: Giants

Super Bowl Winner: Giants

Starting with the AFC, I have the Patriots winning the east. I didn't put too much thought into this one, they are one of the best teams in the conference and I think they will be in contention for a first round bye. I put the Jets in second because I think they will have a horrible first part of the season under Mark Sanchez, name Tim Tebow the starter, then go on a winning streak and put themselves into the playoff picture. The Bills started out last season strong, but then finished it poorly. I envision a similar result this year. Despite good talent, many key players will likely go down again and they will struggle towards the end. I have the Dolphins in last because I do not believe they have much of anything. I think Tannehill will be a good player in the future, but at the moment he has few targets and I doubt Reggie Bush can repeat the production he had last year.

As usual, it was close between the Steelers and Ravens. I do think the Raven's offense will be much improved, but in the end it will come down to head- to- head games with these teams. The Ravens managed to sweep the Steelers last year to win the AFC North and a first round bye. However, the loss of Terrell Suggs, who always seems to be at his best against the Steelers, will hurt the Ravens and win the division for the Steelers. The Ravens are still one of the best teams in the AFC, will take the 5th seed, and will make some noise in the playoffs. I have the Bengals as 3rd in this division, though I do not think they will make it to the playoffs this year. They were a good team last year, but I think Andy Dalton will take a step back simply because there will be more pressure on him. While he might not be as good this year, he will be much improved in 2013 so watch out for him then. The Browns actually had a good defense last year, Weeden might not prove to be a bad quarterback, and Richardson (if healthy) has a bright future. However, I don't think this team will be able to compete in this division, which in my opinion is the best in the AFC.

I think the Texans are one of the best teams in the AFC, and they are definitely the best team in this division going into the season. They can run the ball, play defense, and if Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson are healthy they have a passing game to be reckoned with. Even if Schaub does go down, the Texans have proved they can win a playoff game with a backup. I think the Titans will win second and Chris Johnson will have a bounce back year. Jake Locker may have his struggles, but he will keep the Titans in contention, though I think they will fall short like last season. Kenny Britt (if he stays healthy) is not a bad target either. I think the Colts will be somewhat revitalized under Andrew Luck, though there are way too many holes on that roster for them to compete. Finally, I have the Jaguars in last. The Jags had a decent defense last year, but the holdout and potentially limited play of Maurice Jones- Drew will hurt that team a lot. I think they might be in contention for the first pick in the draft (they play the Vikings in Week 1 in what might become the Barkley Bowl).

Just like last season, I see no significant difference between the teams in the AFC West and would not be at all surprised if the order of the teams is the complete reverse of what I have. I think the Broncos are now the best team in that division with the addition of Peyton Manning, who is still, in my opinion, one the best players in the NFL. I have the Chargers in second because I think Phillip Rivers will have a bounce back season and lead the drive to the playoffs. So what if he lost his favorite target. He has played well in the past without Vincent Jackson, and I think he will perform well again this season. The Chiefs do have a lot of talent and will regain a key player in Jamal Charles, but I have my concerns about Matt Cassel. They will compete, but will fall short. I think the Raiders are the worst team in that division simply because thy have a new head coach, an inconsistent quarterback, and a player with injury concerns in Darren McFadden. They have proved me wrong the last two years though, and this team will likely be in the hunt throughout the year.

Moving to the NFC, I think the Giants will win the east. I am a Giants fan, so that might influence my opinion. The Giants are also coming off a Super Bowl victory, and that confidence should lead them into the playoffs. They are also the most experienced team in this division in terms of big games won. The Eagles have talent, and I do think they will perform well this year, but not enough to make the playoffs. Another prediction I have on the Eagles, probably my guttiest one, is that Michael Vick will not finish the season as the Eagles starting quarterback. Instead, I think that role will fall to Nick Foles, who has played well in the preseason and is their quarterback of the future. I have the Cowboys in third. I think they will compete, but ultimately, they have a history of struggling down the stretch and will likely fall short again. After this season, Jerry Jones will clean the house and unjustly place blame on Tony Romo, who is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. I think the Redskins will finish last. RG3 will make them significantly better, but I doubt a rookie quarterback can compete in a division with as much talent as this one. The Redskins should play to win down the road.

I think the Packers will repeat atop the NFC North, simply because of that explosive offense and Aaron Rodgers. I think a first round bye is also likely with this team. However, this is a strong division so they may fall as well. The Packers defense is also suspect, though I think it will improve this season. I pick the Bears to win second because I think they will manage to keep Jay Cutler healthy. They also picked up a good backup if Matt Forte were to go down. I do have concerns about that teams offensive line, but the addition of a big play wide receiver, Brandon Marshall, should propel them into the playoffs. The Lions are good enough to make the playoffs, but with a stacked conference and offseason distractions, I have them finishing third in the division and missing the playoffs altogether. I think the Vikings are one of the worst teams in the NFC, and an injury to Adrian Peterson doesn't help. I do not think they have a chance against the better teams in the division, and will finish at the bottom of this division.

I am picking the Falcons over the Saints to win the NFC South. The Falcons were the one of only two teams last year to have a 4,000 (Matt Ryan) yard passer and a 1,000 year rusher (Michael Turner), shwing they have balance in what is becoming a passing league. (The Chargers were the other with Phillip Rivers and Ryan Matthews. Cam Newton did both for the Panthers but doesn't count for this category.) I also think the Falcons would have had a much better record if they had better play calling and did not go for it on several key fourth downs. I think they will shore that up this year and win a tight division. The Saints are one of the best teams in the NFL, but the huge offseason distraction and the loss of their head coach for the year will hurt them and put them in second in this division. However, Drew Brees is still good enough to put them into the playoffs. I have the Panthers finishing third who will have a solid season as Cam Newton has another amazing season. They are probably good enough to make the Playoffs in the NFC, but not this loaded NFC. They will have to finish for third and out of the playoffs. I do not think the Buccaneers are a bad team and Josh Freeman is a good quarterback. However, they are in a very good division and will likely end up with a top 10 pick.

The 49ers proved they are a very good team last season, and should continue that this season with their stellar defense. Alex Smith's play might be suspect, but all he has to do is hand the ball off to Frank Gore and throw it to Vernon Davis. I think the Seahawks are the next best team in this division, and may have the two best quarterbacks in this division in Russel Wilson and Matt Flynn (I know combined they have 1 NFL start, but both are talented and proven they can play). I do believe in Russel Wilson, and he will have the Seahawks in contention, if not the playoffs. I put the Cardinals ahead of the Rams solely for their defense, but that does not make them a good team especially given their quarterback situation. (And no more saying that if you have Larry Fitzgerald as a wide receiver, you will be a good quarterback. He might be a very good receiver, but he can't make a good quarterback out of nothing.) Finally, I have the Rams in last place. I know they had injuries last season, but that is no excuse for being as bad as they were. They have a lot of first round picks in the next few drafts, so look out for them in the future.

I think Drew Brees will win the MVP not because he will be the best statistically, but because he will lead the Saints from ruin into the playoffs. He will win the reward given the circumstances. I foresee Arian Foster having a monster season for the Texans, enough to land him the Offensive Player of the Year. I think the Defensive Player of the year will go to Patrick Willis, who lead the Niners back to the playoffs. I didn't put much thought into the Offensive Rookie of the Year because Andrew Luck is as hyped as he is. However, I do think Russel Wilson and RG3 will also be good. On the defensive side, I think Shea McClellan will win the award because he will have a good season playing opposite Julius Peppers. I think Gary Kubiak will win the Coach of the Year because the Texans will have an amazing season and he will be leading the troops.

I figured the AFC champion would be one of four teams, the Patriots, Steelers, Ravens, and Texans, who are head and shoulders ahead of their competition. I'm kicking off the Patriots for their suspect defense and the Ravens for their inconsistent passing game. I do believe both of those aspects of these teams will be better, but that will not make them as complete as the Steelers or Texans. I think the Steelers and Texans will square off in the AFC title game with the Texans coming out on top. The Texan's ability to both run the ball and throw it will eventually get to the Steelers. Plus, I think the Steelers will be characteristically injured around that time of year, giving the Texans the edge.

Unlike the AFC, I think the NFC is more open. Take last year for example, when the conference was top heavy and a lower seeded team won the Conference and the Super Bowl. In fact, four of the last five teams to represent the NFC have been the 4th seed or lower (the Giants were 5th, the Cardinals 4th, the Saints were the exception as 1st, the Packers 6th, and the Giants were 4th). The conference is also stacked, and I think every team other than the Vikings has some shot at the playoffs. In the end, I have chosen the Giants because they have a big game quarterback in Eli Manning, though history has shown us that really doesn't matter. In reality, a team that I have out of the playoffs will probably come out of the blue to win the conference and the Super Bowl.

Let's say the Texans and Giants do face off in the Super Bowl like I have predicted. If that were the case, I think the Giants would win, simply because Eli Manning is more clutch than Matt Schaub. The Texans will put up a good fight and this should be a good contest. But ultimately, the Giants would win this game and their second straight Super Bowl. Of course Eli Manning would win the Super Bowl MVP if this were to happen. If Eli did win the MVP, he would be the first to do so, would stamp his place in Canton, and be forever known as the greatest Manning ever. Then again, its more likely than not that another team, likely from the loaded NFC, will make a run and win the Lombardy trophy. If I could accurately predict the winner of the Super Bowl before the season even started, there would be little point in playing the game. 

August 19, 2012

The Jets, as usual, are receiving a lot of hype this preseason, mainly because of how poorly they played. My only question is what were you expecting? It's not like this team light up defenses last year, and its more or less the same team. So throw in Tim Tebow, who, keep in mind, won most of his games with last minute comebacks. Tim Tebow is not the man to win a shootout. Nor for the matter is Mark Sanchez, another quarterback who is good, maybe not last season, in clutch situations. And its not like these guys have Calvin Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald at receiver either. Yes, Dustin Keller is a good tight end, and when he actually tries, so is Santonio Holmes. But outside of those two, the Jets have talent, but no truly proven players at this point. This could change over the course of the season, but as of right now, they are what they are. The Jets have also played quality opponents. The Bengals made the playoffs last year and the Giants won the Super Bowl. Who would expect a mediocre team from a year ago to beat two playoff caliber teams? In the end, I do not think the Jets are cut out to win a playoff spot, much less make a run at the Superbowl. Yet, they have proven doubters wrong in the past, so who knows. 

The Olympics are in the books, and many people are declaring Michael Phelps the greatest Olympian ever based on his medal count. While there are those who doubt Phelps's credentials based on his the number of events he participated him, I think he deserves the honor. Keep in mind, it is very difficult to compete in a single Olympic event, let alone 8 in one summer. The training might be similar, but there is a mental and physical toll in competing at such events. To have that repeated 8 times must be a nightmare. And to win every single time is something special. While he has competed in a lot of events, a lot more than maybe a track athlete like Usain Bolt, he does deserve credit for the volume of medals he has accumulated, and how he has consistently performed at a high level. One must be an amazing athlete, both physically talented and mentally tough. So shower Phelps with praise, and be proud to have seen him perform. But keep in mind, another athlete will surpass him soon (likely another swimmer), and celebrate him or her with the same thoughts in mind.  

July 29, 2012

The trade deadline is right around the corner but a lot of big deals have happened already. One of them is the Yankee's acquisition of Ichiro. I had actually thought the Yankees would be content with the roster they had and try to compete with it. After all, the Yankees can boast the best run differential (as of the end of today they are +84, tied with the Rangers), a sign of a well rounded team that can pitch and hit. However, the Yankees are the Yankees and had to make a big splash. While Ichiro is not the same hitter he was when he was younger, he is still a good addition. The Yankees can score runs the way they are, and do not need Ichiro to hit .400 for the remainder of the season to win the AL East. Instead, the Yankees can expect Ichiro to play well in the outfield. They can also expect a guy who can run the bases well and do damage when he gets on. Though many of the fans and the media will expect Ichiro to hit, as long as the other Yankees are hitting, it should not matter too much. If the Yankees hit a bad stretch, and Ichiro does struggle, questions will be raised. But if that happens, the Yankees can kiss their postseason hopes good bye anyway because they are in a tough division, even if they do have a massive lead. I would expect Ichiro not to return to the Yankees next season anyway, considering Brett Gardner will be coming back and Ichiro's age.

The Dodgers also made a big move by acquiring Hanley Ramirez from the Marlins. Remember the Dream Team the Marlin's tried to assemble last offseason? Well that has fallen apart quickly and now one of the Marlin's premier players has been traded away. (Note: I would not go so far as to call this a fire sale on the part of the Marlins. Look to the Marlins after the 2005 season and the 2008 Pirates for real fire sales. This is merely a sub par team trading away veterans for prospects.) While Hanley has struggled so far this season, I think his numbers will pick up with the Dodgers and he will be motivated by a chance to play in the postseason. He is also a valuable hitter to hit behind Kemp and Either and his presence there alone will help bolster that lineup. Defensively, I am not of the opinion he adds very much value to the Dodgers, though the move was made to get a major bat. While I do not think he will have the impact Manny Ramirez did when he was traded to the Dodgers, I do think he will be a solid player and improve upon what he was with the Marlins. Unlike Ichiro, I do expect the Dodgers to keep Hanley as he is still young. Over time, I expect Hanley to return to the player he was before. Where Hanley might hurt the Dodgers is with his off the field issues. Because of this question mark, I do not think this addition is as good as the Yankees acquiring Ichiro.

Another major acquisition was the Angels acquiring yet another starter: Zack Greinke. The Angels already had a formidable rotation with Jered Weaver and C.J. Wilson. Dan Haren is also a good starter, though he has had his struggles. Adding Greinke to the mix really makes it strong and might make it the best rotation on paper in the AL. However, I do not think the Angels will be able to catch the Rangers in the AL West. The Rangers have shown they can both pitch and hit with the best teams in the American League, and though their pitching staff might be thinning out, they still have good starters and an offense to more than make up for it, especially if Josh Hamilton gets out of the horrendous slump he is in. The Angels, on the other hand, have had a good pitching staff but have been mediocre in terms of offense this season. While their pitching staff might be good enough to carry them to the playoffs, I do not believe it will be good enough to win a division. But that might not matter. The Angels now have the pitching to be formidable in a short series and recent years have proved good pitching and timely hitting is more than good enough to win a World Series.

July 22, 2012

I know there is exciting talk of Dwight Howard coming to the Lakers and creating an elite team in the West, but I do not think the trade would be a good idea for the Lakers. The Lakers already have a good center in Andrew Bynum, and while he does have a track record of getting injured, he is still an all star. While Dwight Howard might be a better player, the difference between Bynum and Howard is not significant enough to make a blockbuster trade. When do two all stars who play the same position ever get traded for each other? The only scenario in which I can see this working out is if both players are disgruntled with their current teams. Howard is definitely not happy with the Magic, but as far as any of us know, Bynum is quite content to be a Laker. To get Howard, the Lakers would likely have to give up Bynum and more. I don't think this is worth it for the Lakers because Howard is not that much better than Bynum.

About the Lakers wanting to acquire Howard, why is everyone so obsessed with creating a juggernaut team on paper? Real sports is no video game. Time and time again it has been proven that team made through trades and free agency do not always win championships, and often perform poorly. Athletes are humans, not robots. Factors other than talent determine whether a team wins. Take Lamar Odom, who had a horrible season because he simply did not want play for Dallas. The Philadelphia Eagles created a dream team in free agency, and they failed to make the playoffs for a number of reasons. There are a few exceptions to this idea, but they are often special cases. The 2009 Yankees won the World Series and made a number of major offseason acquisitions including Mark Teixeira, CC Sabathia, Nick Swisher, and AJ Burnett. However, the Yankees already had the core of their roster in place, and these players filled subsidiary roles. The exception would be CC Sabathia, but he is just the case of an innings eater and a good player on a team that scores a lot of runs. The Miami Heat did win it all this year with their hallowed Big 3, but LeBron, Wade, and Bosh had already been together for a year. The first season they were together, while they did have much success, ended horrifically in the finals. Teams are better built through the draft and developing young talent. Bill Belichick's Patriots are always in contention because they know how to draft. The New York Giants were able to have repeated success the Patriots because they could do the same. The San Francisco Giants have developed a solid group of young pitchers who have been able to make a winner out of little offensive aid. These teams are more consistent because their organizations have helped them create winners out of talent as opposed to buying talent.

The AL Wild Card race is wild enough to be noteworthy. As of today, there are 8 teams within 4 games of the two wild card spots. To make the race even more wild, the AL Central is up for grabs, and the loser is by no means guaranteed a Wild Card spot. Even the teams that have big leads, the Yankees and Rangers, have stumbled recently. That would put 11 of the 14 teams in the AL within striking distance of a playoff spot. Yet, I do not think this will last for very long. Teams like the Orioles and the Indians who are younger and might normally try to go after a veteran starter to boost their rotations or another bat might not get that opportunity given that so many teams are in contention and are not willing to part with those players. A guy like Doug Fister, who last year catapulted the Tigers into the playoff last year will not likely not be available. For this reason, I think the teams with the advantage are the ones with more complete clubs and injured players who will return in the coming months. Teams Yankees and Rangers have complete relatively rosters, and they should have the advantage going forward in that they likely will not have to add anyone. The Rays are also in an advantageous position because they have good starting depth and should get Evan Longoria back who will make all the difference both offensively and defensively. Those teams are my favorites to make the playoffs going forward. In the end, I think the Yankees will hold the AL East, the Rangers will win the AL West, the Tigers will win a tight race in the AL Central, and the Rays and Angels will nab the Wild Card spots. Then again, a team that gets on fire near the end might very well make the playoffs and win everything.

July 8, 2012

I am excited to watch the Home Run Derby. In my opinion, it's the best event in professional sports. The Home Run Derby is a fun event because it is simple, exciting, and objective. The simplicity aspect of it is important as the players in the Home Run Derby tend to be loose, whereas in playoff games and the Super Bowl they are more tense. While those games are thick in excitement, other than the Super Bowl, championship series are less predictable. How many times has there been a seven game series in the championship round of an MLB, NBA, or NHL championship recently? It hardly ever happens. Even when it does, like the World Series last year, game 6, a back and forth affar, was a better game than game 7, in which a Cardinal victory was hardly ever in question. All star games, while the players are relaxed, are not exciting because the players tend not to care about the outcome. The other event that comes close to the Home Run Derby is the Dunk Contest. However, the Dunk Contest is objective. While this might not matter a lot, it does when players like Blake Griffin dunk. Griffin is talented, but if his dunk is as good as another player's, Griffin will get the advantage because he is Blake Griffin. The Homerun Derby, on the other hand, has none of those biases and is therefore my favorite event to watch.

The first half of the baseball season is over and so far, Josh Hamilton is probably deserving of the American League MVP. I believe this because of the impact he has on his team. While the Rangers have good bats without Hamilton, Hamilton can carry that team for weeks at a time. While Cano has been good in recent weeks, he was not as good at the beginning of the season. Trout only came up recently, but he has come on strong. In the NL, I think RA Dickey has been the best player, considering the way he has led the Mets to so many wins and the unique way he has done it (as a knuckleballer). There are other good hitters in the NL who would probably make good candidates, but RA Dickey has the better story, having come from nowhere. That, in my opinion, makes him the better candidate.

June 21, 2012

LeBron James has finally won a championship and his critics will finally shut up. One only has to look at the example of Alex Rodriguez. Before Arod won his World Series ring in 2009, everyone was badgering him, second guessing him, and doubting his credibility after he admitted he took steroids. Now, no one even mentions the steroids anymore. Even when A- rod goes cold in the post season, like he has done since 2009, no one seems to bother or care. Part of it might have to do with that he plays a stellar third base these days, unlike the poor play he has had at that position in the past. Another example would be Eli Manning. When Eli won his first ring, many of his critics faded away. While they came back when he had a down year (I doubt this will happen to LeBron so this second bit might not apply to him), the critics left after Eli won another Super Bowl. However, LeBron's case might be slightly different. After all, he is oft compared to Michael Jordan, who won 6 NBA finals. But at least LeBron is over the hump and has shown he is clutch, having a triple double in the final game of the season. That should get the monkey off his shoulder.

Thinking of LeBron got me thinking of the best NFL player to not have a ring. I decided it would have to be a quarterback, and the best quarterback, in my opinion, who does not have a championship is Tony Romo. This somehow seems to fit because Romo is also the NFL player who is criticized the most for his lack of a championship, and now that LeBron has one, Romo and the Cowboys might be the most criticized player and team left in sports. However, I do not think this criticism is deserved. Tony Romo, in my opinion, is a franchise quarterback and a very good player. He also has guts, as observed in the game against the 49ers this season when he broke a rib and still stood in to make plays against one of the leagues most ferocious defenses. In the end, Tony Romo is a player who receives criticism he does not deserve.